Soal Perencanaan Tenaga Listrik
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Soal Perencanaan Tenaga Listrik

11 September 2018 by Soal-Soal 70 Views
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Diketahui                          :

Kapasitos Generator A            = 200 MW ;For 4 %

Kapasitas Generator B            = 300 MW ; For 5 %

Kapasitas Generator C            = 400 MW ; For 6%

Kapasitar Generator D            = 500 MW ; For 7 %

Bebanpuncak                          = 800 MW

Ditanyakan     ?

Berapa Loss of load probility

Jawab        :

Step 1 : Buat tabel kombinasi operasi mesin dan hitung masing-masing state probilitynya

Kombinasioperasi

Unit on  Outage

Capacity on Outage (MW)

State probability

A,B,C,D

-

0

0.96

x

0.95

X

0.94

X

0.93

=

0.7972704

 ,B,C,D

A

200

0.04

x

0.95

x

0.94

x

0.93

=

0.0332196

A, ,C,D

B

300

0.96

x

0.05

x

0.94

x

0.93

=

0.0419616

A,B, ,D

C

400

0.96

x

0.95

x

0.06

x

0.93

=

0.0508896

A,B,C,

D

500

0.96

x

0.95

x

0.94

x

0.07

=

0.0600096

, ,C,D

AB

500

0.04

x

0.05

x

0.94

x

0.93

=

0.0017484

  ,B,D

AC

600

0.04

x

0.95

x

0.06

x

0.93

=

0.0021204

 B,C ,

AD

700

0.04

x

0.95

x

0.94

x

0.07

=

0.0025004

 A, , ,D

BC

700

0.96

x

0.05

x

0.06

x

0.93

=

0.0026784

 A, , C

BD

800

0.96

x

0.05

x

0.94

x

0.07

=

0.0031584

A,B

CD

900

0.96

x

0.95

x

0.06

x

0.07

=

0.0038304

D

ABC

900

0.04

x

0.05

x

0.06

x

0.93

=

0.0001116

A,B,C,D

ABD

1000

0.04

x

0.05

x

0.94

x

0.07

=

0.0001316

A,B,C,D

ACD

1100

0.04

x

0.95

x

0.06

x

0.07

=

0.0001596

A,B,C,D

BCD

1200

0.96

x

0.05

x

0.06

x

0.07

=

0.0002016

-

ABCD

1400

0.04

x

0.05

x

0.06

x

0.07

=

0.0000084

                       

Hasil Total

1

 

Hasil totalnya adalah    = 1.000000

Step  2            :Buat commulative outage tabel dengan cumulative out probabilitynya

Comulative on Outage (MW)

commulative probability

0

0.2027296

+

0.7972704

=

1.000000

Di susun dari bawah  keatas dengan memakai tabel 1

200

0.16951

+

0.0332196

=

0.202730

300

0.1275484

+

0.0419616

=

0.169510

400

0.0766588

+

0.0508896

=

0.127548

500

0.0166492

+

0.0600096

=

0.076659

500

0.0149008

+

0.0017484

=

0.016649

600

0.0127804

+

0.0021204

=

0.014901

700

0.01028

+

0.0025004

=

0.012780

700

0.0076016

+

0.0026784

=

0.010280

800

0.0044432

+

0.0031584

=

0.007602

900

0.0006128

+

0.0038304

=

0.004443

900

0.0005012

+

0.0001116

=

0.000613

1000

0.0003696

+

0.0001316

=

0.000501

1100

0.00021

+

0.0001596

=

0.000370

1200

0.0000084

+

0.0002016

=

0.000210

1400

 

 

 

 

0.0000084

 

Step  3            : Hitung daya cadangan LOLP

Cadangan        = Kapasitas tersedia – Beban

                        = 1400 - 800    = 600 MW

Probability 600 MW ataulebih“ On Outage “ dari tabel commulative probability adalah

LOLP    = 0.014901

Jadi LOLP      =0.014901 x  8760                                    =          130,5310 jam /tahun

Atau

                                    =130,5310  :  24                             =          5.438792hari/tahun

 

Karena LOLP masih tinggi maka Generator ditambah 1 unit lagi dengan kapasitas 150 MW dengan FOR 3 % Hitunglah berapa LOLP sekarang dengan mengunakan metode Recursive Convolution

 

 

Jawab

Cumulative on Outage MW

Pᵪ Old

P ᵪ NEW

0

1

1(1-0.03) + 1 (0.03)

=

1,000000

200

0.20273

0.20273

(

0.97

)

+

1

(

0.03

)

=

0.2266481

300

0.16951

0.16951

(

0.97

)

+

0.20273

(

0.03

)

=

0.1705066

400

0.127548

0.127548

(

0.97

)

+

0.16951

(

0.03

)

=

0.12880686

500

0.076659

0.076659

(

0.97

)

+

0.127548

(

0.03

)

=

0.07818567

500

0.016649

0.016649

(

0.97

)

+

0.076659

(

0.03

)

=

0.0184493

600

0.014901

0.014901

(

0.97

)

+

0.016649

(

0.03

)

=

0.01495344

700

0.01278

0.01278

(

0.97

)

+

0.014901

(

0.03

)

=

0.01284363

700

0.01028

0.01028

(

0.97

)

+

0.01278

(

0.03

)

=

0.010355

800

0.007602

0.007602

(

0.97

)

+

0.01028

(

0.03

)

=

0.00768234

900

0.004443

0.004443

(

0.97

)

+

0.007602

(

0.03

)

=

0.00453777

900

0.000613

0.000613

(

0.97

)

+

0.004443

(

0.03

)

=

0.0007279

1000

0.000501

0.000501

(

0.97

)

+

0.000613

(

0.03

)

=

0.00050436

1100

0.00037

0.00037

(

0.97

)

+

0.000501

(

0.03

)

=

0.00037393

1200

0.00021

0.00021

(

0.97

)

+

0.00037

(

0.03

)

=

0.0002148

1400

0.0000084

0.0000084

(

0.97

)

+

0.00021

(

0.03

)

=

0.000014448

                         

cadangan =1550 - 800 =750

                     

jadi LOLP =

(0.010355+0.00768234):2 = 0,00901867

               
 

0.009019 x 8760

=79,00644

                   
 

79,00644 :24

= 3,29135

                   
   

= 3 hari/tahun

                 

 

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